PGIM Fixed Income sees the potential for an additional rate cut later this year or early next year.
The Federal Reserve again nudged the Fed funds rate target down another 25 basis points to 1.75%-2.0% in its latest policy meeting. In a sign of just how divided the Fed is over the appropriate policy stance, however, three FOMC members dissented from the decision. The U.S. and global backdrops create an environment of “difficult judgments, disparate perspectives,” as Chairman Powell noted.
In a new commentary from PGIM Fixed Income, Ellen Gaske, lead economist, G10 economies for the global macroeconomic research team and Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist and head of global bonds, say that if PGIM Fixed Income’s projections for continued U.S. economic growth and inflation pan out, resistance by some Fed officials to further rate cuts going forward may increase. Still, the risks are heavily skewed towards an additional rate cut later this year or early next year.
The Fed’s actions and signals were taken by the markets as “good enough,” successfully balancing the markets’ concerns. However, thanks to the low-growth/high-leverage/high-anxiety global backdrop, markets will remain subject to intermittent bouts of volatility, which could be extreme at times.
For more, read “The Fed Serves Up Another Incremental Cut Amid “Disparate Perspectives,” and find additional insights on pgim.com/insights.
For a media interview with a PGIM Fixed Income subject matter expert, please contact Claire Currie.